The Costs to the West – And the Rest

My recent article in European Voice argues that the costs to the West of war with Iran would pale compared to the costs to the developing world. The piece poses starts by posing that debates on the pros and cons of attacking Iran turn, inevitably, to 1973 and to its consequences for the West. That year, the Arab oil embargo mainly hit industrialized economies and led to deep recessions. But 2012, I argue, is not 1973. Today, the fallout of conflict with a major oil producer would not stop at Western pumps. It would almost exclusively punish countries with a high energy intensity – the developing world, not economically advanced nations. Read the article.